Ten years after the UK stumbled into a rushed referendum that split the nation and unleashed chaos, a caution is issued from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Policymakers and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar could occur with a referendum on a united Ireland, sparking upheavals for which no one is ready.
That is the message from two respected commentators from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Establishments Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a possibly contentious and seismic public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can arise suddenly and can build support very quickly," O’Toole said. "It is my view that the political architecture of our region remains very unstable."
Book Publication Seeks to Stir Debate
The duo have studied the political, financial and cultural rationales for any structural alteration in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to provoke discussion on the topic with a roadshow of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster soon.
"What haunts everyone, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We do not want a referendum on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose results have remained undefined because then you end up with an highly divided society where people who have lost are unable to accept defeat and the people who have won are uncertain quite what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unity if it appears likely that a majority would support.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists argue that moment is imminent, and a group named Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but both governments and pro-UK factions play down the likelihood, making it uncertain when or if there will be a referendum.
Lack of Substantive Discussion
Partisan language for and against unity has hidden the absence of serious debate, said the journalist.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the concept but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has gone on in scholarly circles but hardly any elected officials or campaigners want to engage with the essentials. As an example, what sort of state might be preferred? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the publication, neither author endorses unification or the existing arrangement. Each authors two essays that strive for impartiality in laying out the case for a unified Ireland and the argument opposing it, marshalling economic and social data, previous instances and constitutional models.
Discussions encompass national emblems, taxes, medical care, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to inform and stimulate conversation.
"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," stated O’Toole. "Debate indicates an acceptance of the concept that there might be good arguments on either side."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where the electorate say they support unity but oppose greater financial contributions or introducing a alternative symbol to recognise unionists' British identity.
"Policymakers in Ireland should work out what the plan from pro-unification movements is aside from just saying: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we value you'," stated O’Toole.
Probability of Referendum
McBride thinks a national vote in his lifetime is possible and that it may take place suddenly. "You could have just a reckless or a bad or a incompetent official who states: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have credible, justified arguments, he stated. "One side will win on this issue and somebody will ultimately lose but each side has has something to acquire from the alternative viewpoints."
Appeal for More Extensive Discussion
Westminster should participate in the dialogue, said O’Toole. "This concerns your state. It's a British issue just as much as it is an Irish question."
